Neue Konzepte für das Controlling der Zukunft

Die Rahmenbedingungen des Controlling haben sich tiefgreifend gewandelt, ohne dass dies vom traditionellen Controlling ausreichend nachvollzogen worden w?re.     

Evaluating FOMC forecast ranges: an interval data approach

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve publishes the range of members’ forecasts for key macroeconomic variables, but not the distribution of forecasts within this range. To evaluate these projections, previous papers compare the midpoint of the range with the realized outcome. This paper proposes an alternative approach to forecast evaluation that takes account of the interval nature of projections. It is shown that using the conventional Mincer–Zarnowitz approach to evaluate FOMC forecasts misses important information contained in the width of the forecast interval. This additional information plays a minor role at short forecast horizons but turns out to be of sometimes crucial importance for longer-horizon forecasts. For 18-month-ahead forecasts, the variation of members’ projections contains information that is more relevant for explaining future inflation than information embodied in the midpoint. Likewise, when longer-range forecasts for real GDP growth and the unemployment rate are considered, the width of the forecast interval comprises information over and above the one given by the midpoint alone.     

Empirical generalizations of demand and supply dynamics for movies

High financial risks in production and marketing, the hedonic nature of products, and the global cultural relevance of movies have encouraged a substantial number of researchers to analyze the success drivers of movies. This research provides empirical generalizations in managing the supply and demand of motion pictures. Prior empirical research either ignored the endogeneity of box office and screen allocation or was based on selective samples, ignoring the large amount of smaller movies released to the market. Using two large and unique samples of all movies released in two major movie markets, the US (2000–2010; n = 2098) and Germany (2002–2010; n = 1360), we extend prior research and present empirical generalizations and new fields of research.     

Stochastic differential equation modeling the prevalence of rare chronic diseases with an application to systemic lupus erythematosus

In this article we describe a system of stochastic differential equations to model the age‐specific prevalence of rare chronic diseases from incidence and mortality rates. As an application, the age profile of the prevalence of systemic lupus erythematosus in England and Wales in1995 is calculated. The results are in good agreement with the observed epidemiological measures.     

The role of theory in gender and information systems research

In response to claims emanating from recent assessments of the status of gender and IS research about insufficient theorizing of gender, a critical literature analysis of research papers on the topic of gender and IS that appeared in information systems journals between 1992 and 2012 was undertaken. While some research about gender and IS explicitly employs or develops gender theory, other research that claims to be about gender does not explicitly employ any gender theory to interpret research findings, relying, instead, on implicit gender essentialism as a theory-in-use. Research papers about gender and IS that do not explicitly employ gender theory typically use another IS or management theory as the sensitizing device to interpret the data. Still other research papers are gender atheoretical insofar as neither explicit nor implicit gender theorizing is evident in the papers. In gender and IS research, as in all research, gender theory can be used as a lens to guide the collection, analysis and interpretation of data — whether conducted with a positivist, interpretive or critical epistemology. Alternatively, gender theory can be used to interpret findings when gender is a factor that (expectedly or unexpectedly) results from a larger analysis. Finally, gender theory can result, inductively, from the data by means of grounded theory methods. In any case, the use of theory is to be directed toward understanding the phenomenon of gender in the context of IS (analyzing, explaining), establishing causality (predicting) or guiding action (design and action). This analysis of the role of theory in gender and IS research offers recommendations about the conduct of gender and IS research going forward.     

Customer Satisfaction and Elapsed Time since Purchase as Drivers of Price Knowledge

This study investigates the influence of customer satisfaction and elapsed time since purchase on customers’ explicit and implicit knowledge of price. The results of two large, independent surveys of customers who purchased a consumer durable good indicate that customer satisfaction and elapsed time have different effects on explicit versus implicit price knowledge. Customer satisfaction has a negative impact on explicit price knowledge, but no substantial effect on implicit price knowledge. The length of time between purchase and retrieval of the price information has a negative impact on explicit price knowledge but no substantial effect on implicit price knowledge. Finally, customer satisfaction has a moderating role, in that the higher the customer satisfaction level, the stronger the negative impact of elapsed time on explicit price knowledge.     

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Using photography to elicit grazier values and management practices relating to tree survival and recruitment

Integrating conservation and agricultural production is a major challenge globally. The upper Lachlan catchment of Australia is dominated by livestock grazing, and is threatened because most native woodland vegetation has been cleared. A third of all remaining tree cover occurs as scattered trees in grazing pastures. These scattered trees are dying from old age and are not regenerating due to grazing pressure. Previous work has revealed management strategies that are more likely to maintain tree cover, such as low-input rotational grazing. We asked graziers to photograph significant features on their properties, and used the images as prompts in later interviews. This elicited graziers’ landscape values and other drivers of their management practices related to tree cover. The targets that our 25 case landholders chose to photograph, and the ways they discussed them in later interviews, reflected the focus of past education and incentive programs, suggesting that well-designed policies, educational messages and incentives do seem to reach landholders and result in improved practices. For example, many landholders reported management activities related to the protection of large woodland patches or the maintenance of coarse woody debris. The maintenance of scattered tree cover has not been a focus of policy initiatives in the past. Despite this, the narratives elicited by photos of isolated and scattered trees showed graziers valued them and were aware of and concerned about their decline, yet lacked knowledge about how to protect and regenerate them. Graziers urgently need unambiguous advice and practical assistance to help them adapt their practices to maintain scattered trees in the long term.